New Delhi | Jagran News Desk: As the government speeds up its efforts to control the spread of the deadly COVID-19 ahead of the potential third wave of the deadly virus which is likely to hit the country in October, there is a more worrying factor for the government in the form of rising R-Value. The rising R-value in Kerala, Maharashtra and some northeastern states like Manipur and Mizoram has raised an alarm for the country and as per the Union Health Ministry, the rise in R-Value could lead to another COVID-19 outbreak.

What is R-Value of COVID?

The R-Value or the R-factor (reproduction rate) indicates the speed at which the coronavirus infection is spreading in the country. It is a mathematical representation that acts as an indicator of how fast the infection is spreading.

"Not only is it greater than one, but it is also much higher than the last time there was a scare of a third wave (it was 1.03 at that time). This is driven by several states having their R-value go over 1 in the last few days of August - most notably Kerala and Maharashtra, but also Mizoram and Jammu and Kashmir," Sitabhra Sinha, who is leading the team of researchers, said as quoted by PTI.

What is the importance of R-Value?

The R-Values denotes the speed of the infection it is spreading in the country. When the COVID wave is at its peak, it is evident that the deadly virus is spreading at a fast pace as the R-Value rises rapidly. But, at a time when the wave is in control, an increase in R-value can indicate an impending upward trend in the wave again.

An R-value of 0.95 means that every 100 infected people will infect 95 others on an average. Similarly, if the R-value is less than 1, it would mean that the number of newly infected people will be less than the number of people infected earlier. This basically means that the Coronavirus cases are decreasing. On the other hand, if the 'R' value is greater than 1, the number of infections will increase in each phase which technically is called the epidemic phase.

States with the highest R-value:

The R-value of Kerala stood at 1.33, which has the highest number of active cases in the country, according to the Institute of Mathematical Sciences. It was 1.36 for Mizoram, 1.25 for Jammu and Kashmir, 1.09 for Andhra Pradesh and 1.06 for Maharashtra.

R-Value durig second COVID wave:

When the second wave of the COVID-19 infection was at its peak, the overall R-value in the country was estimated to be 1.37 between March 9 to April 21. It declined to 1.18 between April 24 and May 1 and then to 1.1 between April 29 and May 7. Between May 9 and 11, the R-value was estimated to be around 0.98. It dropped to 0.82 between May 14 and May 30 and further to 0.78 from May 15 to June 26.

Posted By: Talibuddin Khan