India’s population to decline 32 per cent by 2100: Lancet study
India's population will witness sharp decline after reaching its peak of 1.6 billion 2048, according to a recent study published in the acclaimed Lancet journal. The study said the demographic modulations will enable India to reach its peak population of over 1.6 billion (160 Crores) by 2048, and after that there will be sharp decline in Indian population by over 32 per cent, to 1.09 Billion (109 Crores) by 2100. The significant decline has been attributed to the estimated mortality, fertility, and migration patterns.
Researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington’s School of Medicine, used data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, to come to the conclusions. It also said that by 2100, 183 out of 195 countries will have total fertility rates below the replacement level of 2.1 births per woman, leading to a significant decline in global population.
The fertility rate represents the average number of children a woman delivers over her lifetime. The current global fertility rate stands at 2.5 births per woman, with over 80 per cent of countries having fertility rates below 3 children per woman.
The study published in the Lancet also says that India will surpass China’s workforce population some time around the mid-2020s.The Chinese will witness their workforce population declining from 950 million in 2017 to 357 million in 2100. Whereas, India will have the largest workforce population in the world in 2100, but there will still be decline in working age population, from 762 million in 2017 to 578 million in 2100. Indian workforce population, thus will be 62 per cent largest than that of its largely Mandarin-speaking neighbour. India’s total fertility rate is also projected to drop to 1.29 by the end of the century.
As for the global population, it is projected to peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion people, but due to sharply declining fertility rates, it will drop to 8.8 billion by 2100, with over 27 countries set to record over 50 per cent decline in their population, including Japan, Thailand, and Spain.
Posted By: Shashikant Sharma