New Delhi | Jagran News Desk: IIT-Kanpur scientist Manindra Agrawal, who is a part of the three-member team of experts that have been tasked with predicting any surge in COVID-19, has said that India may see a third wave of COVID-19 peaking between October and November if a more virulent mutant than the existing ones emerges by September. However, its intensity is expected to be much lower than the second wave as per the expert panel. The panel also noted if no new virulent emerges, then the situation is unlikely to change.
As per the prediction, the country may see only 1 lakh daily cases as against more than 4 lakh when the deadly second wave was at its peak in May. Hightiling this the IIT-Kanpur scientist tweeted, "Status Quo is when no new mutant comes and New Variant is when 50% more infectious mutant comes by September. As one can see, the only scenario with some semblance of the third wave is New Variant one for epsilon = 1/33. In this scenario, new cases rise to ~1 lakh per day."
The second wave of COVID-19 in India, which claimed thousands of lives, was triggered by a more infectious Delta strain of Covid, which is now dominating the surge in the U.K. and U.S.
Earlier last month, the model suggested that the third wave could peak between October and November, and the daily cases could shoot between 1.5 lakh to 2 lakh every day if a more virulent mutant of SARS-CoV2 drives fresh infections.
With the fresh data, the daily infections are further expected to drop in the range of a lakh. Agrawal said the fresh data comprising the vaccinations that have taken place in July and August, the sero-surveys that gave insights about the anti-bodies were factored in while assuming the scenarios.
Meanwhile, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) also projected that the third wave could be less severe than the recent second wave.
(With inputs from ANI)
Posted By: Sugandha Jha