'Point-to-point rebuttal soon': PM's panel refutes ex-CEA's claims on GDP numbers
New Delhi | Jagran Business Desk: The Economic Advisory Council to the PM Wednesday refuted the claims of former CEA Arvind Subramanian regarding overestimation of GDP numbers and said it will come out with a point-by-point rebuttal in due course.
Subramanian, in a paper, said India's economic growth rate has been overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17 due to a change in methodology for calculating GDP.
The Economic Advisory Council will examine in detail the estimates made in Subramanian's paper and come out with a point-by-point rebuttal in due course, it said in a statement.
"At the moment, it is felt that any attempt to sensationalize what should be a proper academic debate is not desirable from the point of view of preserving the independence and quality of India's statistical systems, all of which the former CEA is familiar with," it said.
"These are certainly issues that Dr. Subramanian must certainly have raised while he was working as CEA, though by his own admission, he has taken time to understand India's growth numbers and is still unsure", the EAC-PM added.
On Tuesday, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) had said it follows accepted procedures and methodologies for arriving at projections of national income, while rejecting the contention of the former chief economic adviser (CEA).
On Tuesday, Subramanian had deduced that India's economic growth rate has been overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17 due to a change in methodology for calculating GDP.
India's gross domestic product product (GDP) growth rate between this period should be about 4.5 per cent instead of the official estimate of close to 7 per cent, he said in a research paper published at Harvard University.
"India changed its data sources and methodology for estimating real GDP for the period since 2011-12. This paper shows that this change has led to a significant overestimation of growth," he said in the paper.
The paper comes amidst controversy over the country's economic growth under the new GDP series. The revision in the methodology happened during the first term of the Modi government.
"Official estimates place annual average GDP growth between 2011-12 and 2016-17 at about 7 per cent. We estimate that actual growth may have been about 4.5 per cent with a 95 per cent confidence interval of 3.5 - 5.5 per cent," he said.
Posted By: Abhinav Gupta